Help me pick my NOVA list!

So I am currently scrambling to finalize my list for the NOVA Narrative Event.  When I registered, I completely missed the part about submitting my list ahead of time.  The draft primer can be found here, but the main highlights are:

2000 points (NOT 1999+1) with full use of Double FOC and Allies
Forgeworld is allowed, but no Superheavies/Gaurgantuan Creatures (could be interesting)
8 Points for completing two Missions each round
8 Points for KPs each round
10 Theme points for modeling/converting to match the narrative
"Infamy" points for completing random objectives (probably my main goal)
Painting Score (not much I can do about that in three weeks with the upcoming move)

I would like to take a list that can hold it's own in the new ruleset, but it doesn't have to be up to the GT standards.  I honestly don't have enough 6th Edition games under my belt to have a solid understanding of what is good and what is not.  However, based on the NOVA guidelines, I feel I need to focus more on bodies, specifically ones that score.  Because vehicles cannot score or hold quarters (except in certain situations), I am worried my current lists (especially the Honor Guard/GK) have too many points invested in vehicles, leaving me with few options to take objectives at the end of games.  I would like to squeeze in more bodies, but really don't know the best way to go about it.  Right  now, I see four main, obvious options for lists:

1. Pure Honor Guard/GK

My late 5th Edition standby.  It has a lot going for it with deep-strike defense, psyker defense, hard to suppress firepower, and solid melee capability.  It is also better painted/converted than my normal Marines, and I love fielding Dread Calgar.  However, it is completely lacking in AP1/2 firepower and suffers against anything with 2+ saves now that the Pallies can't just smash them.  I also worry that it might not have enough bolter shots to handle a horde army.  It also has the fewest boots on the ground with over 780 points invested in vehicles, but good Grand Strategy rolls can mitigate that somewhat. 

2. Pure Vanilla Smurfs

I think the standard Smurfs are the most rounded of my options, especially if I drop Calgar down to a Libby (Null Zone ftw!).  It has solid quality and quanity of firepower with solid melee support from the TH/SS Termies (and maybe Calgar).  It has more boots/bodies than the Honor Guard list and only has 655 points invested in non-scoring vehicles (even though the Preds/LR can be scoring in BGNT).  Calgar is also a realtively well-rounded beatstick that can handle any HQ specific missions thrown his way.  However, the list does not have the inate deepstrike/psyker defense of the Honorguard.

3. Honor Guard with Vanilla Smurf support

I am not sure how I would go about building this list.  Honestly, I am not a fan of MEQ alliances, especially if they are not Battle Brothers.  The HQs and troops are just too expensive, especially if I want to have my beatsticks.  If I was less scrubtastic, I would look at using Inquisitors as HQs, but I don't know how I would make them fit the Honor Guard theme.  As it stands right now, I am pretty much locked in to using Draigo and the Pallies because I don't have any other suitable HQs/escorts.

I was thinking something along the lines of:
  Draigo
  Pallies
  3 GKSS (5) with Pysbacks
  Pysfleman
  DK with Teleporter
  Libby
  Tactical Squad with Rhino
  Stormtalon
  Aegis with Quad Gun

This would give me a good firebase, trading one of the Pysflemen for the Quad Gun.  I would still have Reinforced Aegis and a Hood for defense.  It also has Dread Calgar which is a huge consideration for me, TBH.  The biggest drawback is the Pallies are forced to footslog.  Also the Stormtalon doesn't have the survivability or Dakka the Stormraven would have. 

4. Vanilla Smurfs with Honor Guard contingent

Basically just the reverse:
  Libby
  Two Tactical Squads with Rhinos
  MMAB x2
  MMAB x2
  Stormtalon
  Autocannon/Lascannon Predator (Or Vindicator with Dozer Blade)
  Aegis with Quad Gun
  Draigo
  Pallies
  GKSS (5) with Pysback
  Pysfleman

It has more AP2 firepower but sacrifices the mobility of the Stormraven and Dread Calgar.  It also feels a little more short-ranged, which compounds the problem.  However, it's firepower is much more diffused than the other lists, with almost all the units clocking in at less than 150 points.  However, the fact that it doesn't have Dread Calgar or TDA Calgar makes me sad...

To be honest, I think the two pure options are probably stronger because they only have to pay for one expensive HQ.  However, they all have their pluses and minuses.  Any thoughts on which one I should take or any modifications to any of them?  Are 20-30ish Marines enough scoring given the 6th Edition/NOVA rules?  Do I need fewer metal bawkes?  I would greatly appreciate ANY ideas.  This is my first trip to NOVA and I would like to avoid getting clubbed TOO hard.